bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 8:45 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 0 – SD 7
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000000020
SD201301007120
Team box
SF·SD
2
hits
12
0
home runs
1
1
walks
5
6
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD2-2003
Jase BowenSD2-4111
Luis CampusanoSD3-4001
Manny MachadoSD1-4001
Xander BogaertsSD1-4000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carson Whisenhunt (L)SF3.17643
Bradgley RodriguezSD1.00002
Yuki Matsui (W)SD3.01002
German Marquez (S)SD5.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: SD 7 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, SD 54% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.3 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.2
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+118Our fair odds−118
3.9Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game7.7
1.13Home runs / game1.08
2.6Walks drawn / game3.4
47−62Season record55−54
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11846%+12444.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11854%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SDBradgley Rodriguez RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Jul 30 at SD
last game
Jul 30 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
SF·SD
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
47−62
season record
55−54
26−27
home record
29−25
21−35
away record
26−29
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.7
1.13
home runs / game
1.08
2.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.66
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 125 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Jul 30at SDSF 4 − 1
May 6at SFSD 5 − 1
May 5at SFSD 10 − 5
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 30at SD4 − 1W
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L
Jul 27vs MIL3 − 0W
Jul 26vs LAA3 − 4L
Jul 25vs LAA9 − 2W
Jul 24vs LAA7 − 6W
Jul 22at KC4 − 5L
Jul 21at KC2 − 3L
Jul 20at KC3 − 4L

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 30vs SF1 − 4L
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L
Jul 22at ATL6 − 7L
Jul 21at ATL8 − 3W
Jul 20at ATL2 − 3L