bayesRatings

Rockies at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final COL 4 – STL 7
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL1000020104102
STL102010037140
Team box
COL·STL
10
hits
14
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
3
152
pitches thrown
140
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett SullivanCOL2-3112
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-4112
Ivan HerreraSTL4-5101
JJ WetherholtSTL2-3202
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4211
Masyn WinnSTL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael LorenzenCOL4.18231
Tanner Gordon (L)COL3.14202
Michael McGreevySTL5.28324
George Soriano (W)STL1.02110
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 38%, STL 62% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
STL by 1.0
Expected score
STL 5.2 – 4.2 COL
Expected total
9.4
RockiesThe matchupCardinals
+161Our fair odds−161
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.44Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.3
5.7Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.13Home runs / game1.03
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
46−71Season record58−59
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · STL chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+16138%+14041.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−16162%−16862.7%———
SpreadSTL by 1.0
COLColorado Rockies+1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 1.0 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more44%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more34%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 7 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 9.49 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·STL
Aug 8 at STL
last game
Aug 8 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 117+ games
COL·STL
−0.44
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.3
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
46−71
season record
58−59
27−32
home record
29−33
19−39
away record
29−26
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.13
home runs / game
1.03
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.62
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

COL · STL · 134 days
Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Aug 8at STLCOL 8 − 6
Aug 7at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at STLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at STLCOL 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2025at COLSTL 6 − 2
Sep 26, 2024at COLCOL 10 − 8
Sep 25, 2024at COLSTL 5 − 2

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 8vs COL6 − 8L
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W