bayesRatings

Rays at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final TB 13 – COL 9
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB24110021213150
COL0010102149152
Team box
TB·COL
15
hits
15
3
home runs
2
3
walks
0
3
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB2-5323
Ezequiel TovarCOL4-4311
Jonathan ArandaTB4-5202
Mickey MoniakCOL2-4112
Richie PalaciosTB2-4212
Kyle KarrosCOL2-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ian Seymour (W)TB6.07209
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL3.07730

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
TB +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · TB 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 61%, COL 39% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
TB by 1.6
Expected score
TB 6.2 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
10.9
RaysThe matchupRockies
−155Our fair odds+155
6.2Expected runs4.7
+0.09Power rating−0.42
4.4Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game5.7
8.6Hits / game8.6
1.00Home runs / game1.12
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
65−46Season record45−67
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · COL chance
Our model fair60.8%39.2%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−15561%−18364.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+15539%+15239.6%———
SpreadTB by 1.6
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.6 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 17 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCOL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more50%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 19 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·COL
Aug 2 vs CHW
last game
Aug 2 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
TB·COL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.42
4.4
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.7
65−46
season record
45−67
41−18
home record
27−29
24−28
away record
18−38
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.12
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.60
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

TB · COL · 128 days
Tampa Bay RaysColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · COL 2−7
Mar 30, 2025at TBTB 6 − 4
Mar 29, 2025at TBCOL 2 − 1
Mar 28, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at COLTB 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at COLTB 8 − 6
Apr 5, 2024at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 24, 2023at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at TBTB 6 − 5
Aug 22, 2023at TBTB 12 − 4

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 31vs CHW1 − 6L
Jul 30vs TEX3 − 2W
Jul 29vs TEX3 − 0W
Jul 28vs TEX1 − 4L
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W