bayesRatings

Royals at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final KC 1 – COL 8
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC010000000150
COL10010600890
Team box
KC·COL
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
5
8
strikeouts
5
144
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL1-5113
Brett SullivanCOL2-4102
Cole CarriggCOL3-4101
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4001
Luke MaileKC1-3001
Willi CastroCOL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (L)KC5.05553
Kyle Freeland (W)COL9.05128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +7
KC +7
123456789
largest lead: COL 7 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 55%, COL 45% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
KC by 0.9
Expected score
KC 6.0 – 5.1 COL
Expected total
11.2
RoyalsThe matchupRockies
−125Our fair odds+125
6.0Expected runs5.1
−0.15Power rating−0.44
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.1Allowed / game5.7
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.03Home runs / game1.13
3.1Walks drawn / game3.1
46−66Season record44−67
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · COL chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals−12555%+10548.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+12545%−12655.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.9
KCKansas City Royals−0.9our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.9 expected
Kansas City Royals by 17 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 16 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCOL wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more45%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more36%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·COL
Aug 1 at COL
last game
Aug 1 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
10th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
KC·COL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
5.7
46−66
season record
44−67
26−27
home record
26−29
20−39
away record
18−38
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.03
home runs / game
1.13
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.47
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

KC · COL · 127 days
Kansas City RoyalsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Aug 1at COLCOL 12 − 6
Jul 31at COLCOL 3 − 1
Apr 24, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 24, 2025at KCKC 7 − 4
Apr 22, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2024at COLKC 10 − 1
Jul 6, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jun 4, 2023at KCKC 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2023at KCCOL 6 − 4

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 1at COL6 − 12L
Jul 31at COL1 − 3L
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L
Jul 22vs SF5 − 4W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L