bayesRatings

Royals at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final KC 1 – DET 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000100000140
DET20000000250
Team box
KC·DET
4
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
13
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
112
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-3001
Nick LoftinKC1-3001
Gleyber TorresDET1-2100
Zach McKinstryDET1-3000
Riley GreeneDET0-3001
Colt KeithDET1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Beck Way (L)KC1.03200
Tarik Skubal (W)DET7.141212
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 2 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 44%, DET 56% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
DET by 1.0
Expected score
DET 4.6 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
8.2
RoyalsThe matchupTigers
+125Our fair odds−125
3.6Expected runs4.6
−0.13Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game4.2
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.01Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
43−61Season record49−54
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi31.5%72.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12544%+21831.5%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12556%−26372.4%———
SpreadDET by 1.0
KCKansas City Royals+1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.0 expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more45%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more34%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCBeck Way RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·DET
Jul 23 at DET
last game
Jul 23 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
KC·DET
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.2
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
43−61
season record
49−54
26−27
home record
28−23
17−34
away record
21−31
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.01
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.48
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

KC · DET · 118 days
Kansas City RoyalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Jul 23at DETDET 4 − 3
May 10at KCDET 6 − 3
May 9at KCKC 5 − 1
May 8at KCKC 4 − 3
Apr 16at DETDET 10 − 9
Apr 15at DETDET 2 − 1
Apr 14at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at KCDET 5 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at KCDET 5 − 3

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L
Jul 22vs SF5 − 4W
Jul 21vs SF3 − 2W
Jul 20vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 19vs SD2 − 19L
Jul 18vs SD6 − 1W
Jul 17vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 12at BAL2 − 8L
Jul 11at BAL1 − 6L
Jul 10at BAL3 − 5L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jul 19at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 18at LAA7 − 0W
Jul 17at LAA2 − 1W
Jul 12vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 11vs PHI2 − 4L
Jul 10vs PHI10 − 2W