bayesRatings

Tigers at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final DET 2 – CHC 11
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000002270
CHC6010202011110
Team box
DET·CHC
7
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
11
6
strikeouts
9
196
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-3112
Michael ConfortoCHC1-2112
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-2102
Carson KellyCHC1-3102
Alex BregmanCHC1-4101
Dansby SwansonCHC2-3300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber Valdez (L)DET0.25621
David Peterson (W)CHC6.23014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +11
DET +11
123456789
largest lead: CHC 11 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 45%, CHC 55% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.6 – 4.3 DET
Expected total
8.9
TigersThe matchupCubs
+120Our fair odds−120
4.3Expected runs4.6
+0.03Power rating+0.16
4.3Runs / game5.1
3.9Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.22Home runs / game1.26
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
47−53Season record56−44
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHC chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+12045%+10149.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12055%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.3our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 8.16 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHC
Jul 20 at CHC
last game
Jul 20 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
DET·CHC
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.3
runs / game
5.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
47−53
season record
56−44
27−23
home record
29−21
20−30
away record
27−23
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.22
home runs / game
1.26
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.45
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

DET · CHC · 115 days
Detroit TigersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Jul 20at CHCDET 8 − 6
Jun 8, 2025at DETDET 4 − 0
Jun 7, 2025at DETCHC 6 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at DETDET 3 − 1
Aug 22, 2024at CHCCHC 10 − 2
Aug 21, 2024at CHCDET 8 − 2
Aug 20, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 1
Aug 23, 2023at DETCHC 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2023at DETDET 8 − 6
Aug 21, 2023at DETCHC 7 − 6

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jul 19at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 18at LAA7 − 0W
Jul 17at LAA2 − 1W
Jul 12vs PHI0 − 5L
Jul 11vs PHI2 − 4L
Jul 10vs PHI10 − 2W
Jul 9vs ATH4 − 1W
Jul 8vs ATH6 − 1W
Jul 7vs ATH6 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 20vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 19vs MIN10 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIN6 − 2W
Jul 17vs MIN2 − 5L
Jul 12at CIN8 − 4W
Jul 11at CIN5 − 3W
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 8at BAL9 − 7W
Jul 7at BAL5 − 2W