bayesRatings

Royals at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final KC 2 – MIN 3
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000002000241
MIN0001000023100
Team box
KC·MIN
4
hits
10
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
14
strikeouts
4
138
pitches thrown
153
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC2-4001
Josh BellMIN2-4001
Royce LewisMIN1-1002
Victor CaratiniMIN2-4100
Lane ThomasKC1-4100
Nick LoftinKC1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth LugoKC6.06122
Alex Lange (L)KC0.22211
Taj BradleyMIN6.032310
Jack Anderson (W)MIN1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · KC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, MIN 53% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 5.0 – 4.8 KC
Expected total
9.8
RoyalsThe matchupTwins
+112Our fair odds−112
4.8Expected runs5.0
−0.13Power rating−0.08
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.1Allowed / game5.0
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.02Home runs / game1.18
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
45−62Season record53−54
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11247%+15239.6%———
MINMinnesota Twins−11253%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more38%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·MIN
Jul 26 at DET
last game
Jul 26 vs ATH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
KC·MIN
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
5.0
45−62
season record
53−54
26−27
home record
28−26
19−35
away record
25−28
W2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.02
home runs / game
1.18
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.47
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

KC · MIN · 122 days
Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Jun 7at MINKC 6 − 5
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1

KC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L
Jul 22vs SF5 − 4W
Jul 21vs SF3 − 2W
Jul 20vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 19vs SD2 − 19L
Jul 18vs SD6 − 1W
Jul 17vs SD7 − 6W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W
Jul 24vs ATH0 − 2L
Jul 23at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 22at CLE10 − 6W
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W