bayesRatings

Athletics at Twins

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 7:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final ATH 2 – MIN 0
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000011000250
MIN000000000020
Team box
ATH·MIN
5
hits
2
0
home runs
0
3
walks
7
5
strikeouts
6
141
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH1-3001
Shea LangeliersATH1-4000
Alika WilliamsATH1-2000
Lawrence ButlerATH0-2001
Tommy WhiteATH1-4000
Henry BolteATH1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Lopez (W)ATH5.01044
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.00001
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN6.03231

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · ATH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, MIN 55% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 5.4 – 5.0 ATH
Expected total
10.4
AthleticsThe matchupTwins
+124Our fair odds−124
5.0Expected runs5.4
−0.24Power rating−0.08
4.5Runs / game4.8
5.7Allowed / game5.1
8.4Hits / game8.3
1.25Home runs / game1.21
3.5Walks drawn / game3.3
43−59Season record51−53
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · MIN chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12445%+11945.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−12455%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATHAthletics+0.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.4
Over10.4our total————
Under10.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more39%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more30%
Athletics wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 8.0 IP, 10.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 10.54 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·MIN
Jul 22 at ARI
last game
Jul 23 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
ATH·MIN
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.5
runs / game
4.8
5.7
runs allowed / game
5.1
43−59
season record
51−53
20−30
home record
26−25
23−29
away record
25−28
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.3
1.25
home runs / game
1.21
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.41
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ATH · MIN · 118 days
AthleticsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Aug 21, 2025at MINATH 8 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MINATH 4 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MINATH 6 − 3
Jun 5, 2025at ATHATH 14 − 3
Jun 4, 2025at ATHMIN 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at ATHMIN 10 − 3
Jun 2, 2025at ATHMIN 10 − 4
Jun 23, 2024at ATHMIN 3 − 0
Jun 22, 2024at ATHMIN 10 − 2
Jun 21, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 5

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 23at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 22at CLE10 − 6W
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L
Jul 18at CHC2 − 6L
Jul 17at CHC5 − 2W
Jul 12vs LAA4 − 2W
Jul 11vs LAA5 − 3W
Jul 10vs LAA3 − 4L