bayesRatings

Athletics at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATH 5 – ARI 6
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATH0010000121590
ARI3000001002690
Team box
ATH·ARI
9
hits
9
2
home runs
1
3
walks
7
9
strikeouts
8
179
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max KeplerARI2-3113
Jacob WilsonATH1-4112
Shea LangeliersATH1-4111
Nolan ArenadoARI1-5001
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4101
Jonah HeimATH1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack PerkinsATH5.05314
Luis Medina (L)ATH0.12121
Kohl DrakeARI5.04125
Kevin Ginkel (W)ARI1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
ATH +3
12345678910
largest lead: ARI 3 · ATH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, ARI 57% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
ARI by 0.7
Expected score
ARI 5.2 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+133Our fair odds−133
4.5Expected runs5.2
−0.22Power rating+0.01
4.5Runs / game4.3
5.6Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.24Home runs / game0.94
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
43−57Season record51−49
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ARI chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13343%+11446.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−13357%−13757.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more42%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 8.56 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ARIKohl Drake P · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ARI
Jul 20 at ARI
last game
Jul 20 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
ATH·ARI
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.3
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
43−57
season record
51−49
20−30
home record
29−22
23−27
away record
22−27
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.24
home runs / game
0.94
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.42
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

ATH · ARI · 115 days
AthleticsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Jul 20at ARIATH 5 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at ATHARI 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at ATHARI 7 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jun 29, 2024at ARIARI 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2024at ARIATH 9 − 4
May 17, 2023at ATHARI 5 − 3
May 16, 2023at ATHATH 9 − 8
May 15, 2023at ATHARI 5 − 2

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L