bayesRatings

Athletics at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATH 5 – ARI 2
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0100103005141
ARI000002000281
Team box
ATH·ARI
14
hits
8
2
home runs
1
1
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
152
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI1-4112
Jacob WilsonATH2-5111
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATH2-3111
Tommy WhiteATH4-5100
Jeff McNeilATH1-1002
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey SpringsATH5.06212
Luis Medina (W)ATH2.01002
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.01013
Mitch BrattARI4.28214
Kevin Ginkel (L)ARI1.04301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · ATH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 42%, ARI 58% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
ARI by 0.8
Expected score
ARI 5.2 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+135Our fair odds−135
4.4Expected runs5.2
−0.23Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game4.4
5.6Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.23Home runs / game0.94
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
42−57Season record51−48
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ARI chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13542%+12444.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−13558%−14859.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.8
ATHAthletics+0.8our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more43%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more33%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 2 starts: 6.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ARI
Jul 19 vs WSH
last game
Jul 19 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
ATH·ARI
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.4
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
42−57
season record
51−48
20−30
home record
29−21
22−27
away record
22−27
L1
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.23
home runs / game
0.94
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

ATH · ARI · 114 days
AthleticsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Aug 3, 2025at ATHARI 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at ATHARI 7 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jun 29, 2024at ARIARI 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2024at ARIATH 9 − 4
May 17, 2023at ATHARI 5 − 3
May 16, 2023at ATHATH 9 − 8
May 15, 2023at ATHARI 5 − 2
Jun 9, 2021at ATHATH 4 − 0

ATH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L
Jul 7at DET2 − 6L
Jul 5vs MIA8 − 9L

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L
Jul 7at SD1 − 4L
Jul 6at SD8 − 0W