bayesRatings

Athletics at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final ATH 5 – ARI 15
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH0010101025100
ARI0002750115170
Team box
ATH·ARI
10
hits
17
1
home runs
5
3
walks
8
5
strikeouts
8
172
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James McCannARI3-4213
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-4113
Corbin CarrollARI2-4211
Jeff McNeilATH2-4211
Ildemaro VargasARI3-4301
Tim TawaARI2-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gage Jump (L)ATH4.28645
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI5.05213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +12
ATH +12
123456789
largest lead: ARI 12 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, ARI 57% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
ARI by 0.7
Expected score
ARI 5.2 – 4.5 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+135Our fair odds−135
4.5Expected runs5.2
−0.22Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game4.4
5.6Allowed / game4.5
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.25Home runs / game0.94
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
43−58Season record52−49
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ARI chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13543%+11945.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−13557%−14258.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.7
ATHAthletics+0.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.7 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more42%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more32%
Athletics wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 6.57 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ARI
Jul 21 at ARI
last game
Jul 21 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
ATH·ARI
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.4
5.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
43−58
season record
52−49
20−30
home record
30−22
23−28
away record
22−27
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.25
home runs / game
0.94
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.42
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

ATH · ARI · 116 days
AthleticsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Jul 21at ARIARI 6 − 5
Jul 20at ARIATH 5 − 2
Aug 3, 2025at ATHARI 6 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at ATHARI 7 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 30, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jun 29, 2024at ARIARI 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2024at ARIATH 9 − 4
May 17, 2023at ATHARI 5 − 3
May 16, 2023at ATHATH 9 − 8

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L
Jul 11at CHW0 − 1L
Jul 10at CHW1 − 14L
Jul 9at DET1 − 4L
Jul 8at DET1 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W
Jul 8at SD4 − 10L