bayesRatings

Royals at Twins

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final KC 3 – MIN 4
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC002010000380
MIN000000004431
Team box
KC·MIN
8
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
8
122
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kody ClemensMIN1-4114
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4112
Isaac CollinsKC2-3000
Tyler TolbertKC2-4000
John RaveKC2-3100
Royce LewisMIN1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah CameronKC8.01027
Matt Strahm (L)KC0.01100
Bailey OberMIN6.04223
Yoendrys Gomez (W)MIN1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · KC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, MIN 52% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.9 – 4.7 KC
Expected total
9.6
RoyalsThe matchupTwins
+110Our fair odds−110
4.7Expected runs4.9
−0.12Power rating−0.07
4.2Runs / game4.7
5.0Allowed / game5.0
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.01Home runs / game1.16
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
46−63Season record54−55
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · MIN chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11048%+11446.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−11052%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← KC wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more38%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 6.88 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·MIN
Jul 29 at MIN
last game
Jul 29 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
KC·MIN
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.7
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.0
46−63
season record
54−55
26−27
home record
29−27
20−36
away record
25−28
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.01
home runs / game
1.16
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.47
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

KC · MIN · 124 days
Kansas City RoyalsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jul 29at MINKC 4 − 0
Jul 28at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jun 7at MINKC 6 − 5
Jun 6at MINKC 3 − 2
Jun 5at MINMIN 5 − 3
Jun 4at MINKC 8 − 6
Apr 2at KCMIN 5 − 1
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L
Jul 22vs SF5 − 4W
Jul 21vs SF3 − 2W
Jul 20vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 19vs SD2 − 19L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 29vs KC0 − 4L
Jul 28vs KC3 − 2W
Jul 26vs ATH11 − 8W
Jul 25vs ATH2 − 0W
Jul 24vs ATH0 − 2L
Jul 23at CLE3 − 1W
Jul 22at CLE10 − 6W
Jul 21at CLE2 − 5L
Jul 20at CLE4 − 13L
Jul 19at CHC1 − 10L