bayesRatings

Royals at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final KC 1 – COL 3
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000001000162
COL10020000350
Team box
KC·COL
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
1
walks
0
4
strikeouts
8
111
pitches thrown
116
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC1-4111
Brenton DoyleCOL1-3001
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4001
Kyle KarrosCOL2-3100
Salvador PerezKC2-4000
Mickey MoniakCOL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (L)KC6.05107
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL6.25102
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 3 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 57%, COL 43% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
KC by 1.0
Expected score
KC 6.1 – 5.1 COL
Expected total
11.2
RoyalsThe matchupRockies
−132Our fair odds+132
6.1Expected runs5.1
−0.12Power rating−0.47
4.2Runs / game4.7
5.0Allowed / game5.8
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.01Home runs / game1.12
3.1Walks drawn / game3.1
46−64Season record42−67
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · COL chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals−13257%−11252.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+13243%−10751.8%———
SpreadKC by 1.0
KCKansas City Royals−1our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 1.0 expected
Kansas City Royals by 17 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 16 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 15 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCOL wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more45%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more36%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 13 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·COL
Jul 30 at MIN
last game
Jul 29 at SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
KC·COL
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.47
4.2
runs / game
4.7
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.8
46−64
season record
42−67
26−27
home record
24−29
20−37
away record
18−38
L1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.01
home runs / game
1.12
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.46
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

KC · COL · 125 days
Kansas City RoyalsColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Apr 24, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 24, 2025at KCKC 7 − 4
Apr 22, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Jul 7, 2024at COLKC 10 − 1
Jul 6, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jun 4, 2023at KCKC 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2023at KCCOL 6 − 4
Jun 2, 2023at KCCOL 7 − 2
May 15, 2022at COLKC 8 − 7

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 30at MIN3 − 4L
Jul 29at MIN4 − 0W
Jul 28at MIN2 − 3L
Jul 26at DET5 − 4W
Jul 25at DET3 − 2W
Jul 24at DET1 − 2L
Jul 23at DET3 − 4L
Jul 22vs SF5 − 4W
Jul 21vs SF3 − 2W
Jul 20vs SF4 − 3W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L
Jul 21vs WSH8 − 7W
Jul 20vs WSH3 − 7L
Jul 19vs CIN6 − 9L
Jul 18vs CIN10 − 3W