bayesRatings

White Sox at Rays

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CHW 6 – TB 1
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW112002000682
TB000100000150
Team box
CHW·TB
8
hits
5
4
home runs
1
2
walks
2
2
strikeouts
9
148
pitches thrown
125
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW2-4212
Andrew BenintendiCHW2-3111
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4112
Miguel VargasCHW1-3111
Junior CamineroTB1-2111
Drew RomoCHW1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (W)CHW5.04106
Nick Martinez (L)TB6.07602

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · CHW 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 3.8 CHW
Expected total
8.1
White SoxThe matchupRays
+119Our fair odds−119
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating+0.10
4.8Runs / game4.5
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game8.6
1.29Home runs / game1.01
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
57−51Season record64−44
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11946%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11954%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·TB
Jul 30 vs NYY
last game
Jul 30 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
CHW·TB
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.8
runs / game
4.5
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
57−51
season record
64−44
34−21
home record
40−16
23−30
away record
24−28
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
8.6
1.29
home runs / game
1.01
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.53
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

CHW · TB · 125 days
Chicago White SoxTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 16at CHWTB 5 − 3
Apr 15at CHWTB 8 − 3
Apr 14at CHWTB 8 − 5
Sep 11, 2025at CHWCHW 5 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 9, 2025at CHWTB 5 − 4
Jul 23, 2025at TBCHW 11 − 9
Jul 22, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 21, 2025at TBCHW 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at TBCHW 4 − 1

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Jul 29vs NYY6 − 5W
Jul 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Jul 27vs NYY5 − 9L
Jul 26vs HOU12 − 3W
Jul 25vs HOU1 − 4L
Jul 24vs HOU5 − 9L
Jul 22at TEX4 − 2W
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jul 30vs TEX3 − 2W
Jul 29vs TEX3 − 0W
Jul 28vs TEX1 − 4L
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W
Jul 23at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 22at TOR4 − 2W
Jul 21at TOR12 − 2W
Jul 20at TOR7 − 1W