bayesRatings

Yankees at White Sox

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final NYY 9 – CHW 5
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0004001409101
CHW3000100015113
Team box
NYY·CHW
10
hits
11
1
home runs
0
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
172
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ali SanchezNYY1-4113
Colson MontgomeryCHW3-4102
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4202
Ben RiceNYY2-4101
Braden MontgomeryCHW1-3001
Chase MeidrothCHW1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max FriedNYY3.05324
Brent Headrick (W)NYY1.12001
David Bednar (S)NYY0.10001
Noah SchultzCHW3.12325
Bryan Hudson (L)CHW1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · NYY 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 53%, CHW 47% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
8.8
YankeesThe matchupWhite Sox
−114Our fair odds+114
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.17Power rating−0.02
4.6Runs / game4.8
3.8Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.44Home runs / game1.31
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
59−46Season record55−49
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · CHW chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11453%−14258.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11447%+11945.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byCHW wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·CHW
Jul 26 at PHI
last game
Jul 26 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
NYY·CHW
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.6
runs / game
4.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
59−46
season record
55−49
26−23
home record
32−19
33−23
away record
23−30
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.44
home runs / game
1.31
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.56
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYY · CHW · 121 days
New York YankeesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
Jun 18at NYYCHW 5 − 1
Jun 17at NYYNYY 10 − 5
Jun 16at NYYNYY 12 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Sep 24, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CHWNYY 5 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at CHWNYY 10 − 4

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 26at PHI4 − 11L
Jul 25at PHI3 − 1W
Jul 24at PHI1 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT2 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT3 − 5L
Jul 20vs PIT8 − 5W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 1W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 8L
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 26vs HOU12 − 3W
Jul 25vs HOU1 − 4L
Jul 24vs HOU5 − 9L
Jul 22at TEX4 − 2W
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L
Jul 17at TOR12 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATH9 − 1W