bayesRatings

Dodgers at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 6:20 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAD 1 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000010140
NYY10000001280
Team box
LAD·NYY
4
hits
8
1
home runs
1
4
walks
5
8
strikeouts
9
147
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy EdmanLAD1-2111
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4111
Cody BellingerNYY2-3001
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4100
Miguel RojasLAD1-2000
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will KleinLAD1.03101
Evan Phillips (L)LAD1.02111
Ryan YarbroughNYY2.22001
David Bednar (W)NYY1.20012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, NYY 47% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 4.1 NYY
Expected total
8.8
DodgersThe matchupYankees
−111Our fair odds+111
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.33Power rating+0.17
5.2Runs / game4.8
3.7Allowed / game3.8
8.8Hits / game7.8
1.31Home runs / game1.46
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
62−36Season record54−43
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · NYY chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11153%−14258.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees+11147%+11945.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byNYY wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADWill Klein RP · last 2 starts: 3.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted
NYYRyan Yarbrough RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·NYY
Jul 19 at NYY
last game
Jul 19 vs LAD
same day
days of rest
same day
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
LAD·NYY
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.2
runs / game
4.8
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
62−36
season record
54−43
31−19
home record
23−21
31−17
away record
31−22
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.8
1.31
home runs / game
1.46
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.37
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · NYY · 113 days
Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 3−7
Jul 17at NYYLAD 2 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at LADNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2025at LADLAD 18 − 2
May 30, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 5
Oct 30, 2024at NYYLAD 7 − 6post
Oct 29, 2024at NYYNYY 11 − 4post
Oct 28, 2024at NYYLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 26, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 25, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3post
Jun 9, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 4

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L