bayesRatings

Dodgers at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Jul 17 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAD 2 – NYY 1
← MLB / Jul 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000000200251
NYY000100000160
Team box
LAD·NYY
5
hits
6
1
home runs
0
2
walks
3
10
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD1-3112
Ben RiceNYY2-4000
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-3000
Kyle TuckerLAD1-4000
Tommy EdmanLAD1-3000
Andy PagesLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD5.25015
Jack Dreyer (W)LAD1.10002
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001
Gerrit Cole (L)NYY6.04218

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 52%, NYY 48% · Updated Jul 17

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 4.2 NYY
Expected total
9.0
DodgersThe matchupYankees
−110Our fair odds+110
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.33Power rating+0.18
5.2Runs / game4.8
3.7Allowed / game3.9
8.8Hits / game7.9
1.31Home runs / game1.48
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
61−36Season record54−42
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · NYY chance
Our model fair52.3%47.7%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11052%−11252.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees+11048%−10751.8%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byNYY wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 8.31 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·NYY
Jul 12 vs ARI
last game
Jul 12 at WSH
4 days
days of rest
4 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 96+ games
LAD·NYY
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
5.2
runs / game
4.8
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
61−36
season record
54−42
31−19
home record
23−20
30−17
away record
31−22
L3
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
7.9
1.31
home runs / game
1.48
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.36
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · NYY · 111 days
Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 3−7
Jun 1, 2025at LADNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2025at LADLAD 18 − 2
May 30, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 5
Oct 30, 2024at NYYLAD 7 − 6post
Oct 29, 2024at NYYNYY 11 − 4post
Oct 28, 2024at NYYLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 26, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 25, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3post
Jun 9, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Jun 8, 2024at NYYLAD 11 − 3

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W
Jul 2vs SD12 − 7W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W