bayesRatings

Dodgers at Yankees

MLB · Sunday, Jul 19 · 11:35 AM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final LAD 8 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jul 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0020100508100
NYY000100010240
Team box
LAD·NYY
10
hits
4
0
home runs
1
7
walks
0
13
strikeouts
7
102
pitches thrown
206
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5102
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4302
Trent GrishamNYY1-4111
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4002
Max MuncyLAD2-4100
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD9.04207
Cam Schlittler (L)NYY4.16308

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
LAD +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · LAD 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, NYY 47% · Updated Jul 19

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 4.1 NYY
Expected total
8.8
DodgersThe matchupYankees
−111Our fair odds+111
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.33Power rating+0.17
5.2Runs / game4.8
3.7Allowed / game3.8
8.8Hits / game7.8
1.31Home runs / game1.46
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
62−36Season record54−43
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · NYY chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11153%−12655.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees+11147%+10548.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 9%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byNYY wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 20 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·NYY
Jul 17 at NYY
last game
Jul 17 vs LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 97+ games
LAD·NYY
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.2
runs / game
4.8
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
62−36
season record
54−43
31−19
home record
23−21
31−17
away record
31−22
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.8
1.31
home runs / game
1.46
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.37
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · NYY · 113 days
Los Angeles DodgersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 3−7
Jul 17at NYYLAD 2 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at LADNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2025at LADLAD 18 − 2
May 30, 2025at LADLAD 8 − 5
Oct 30, 2024at NYYLAD 7 − 6post
Oct 29, 2024at NYYNYY 11 − 4post
Oct 28, 2024at NYYLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 26, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 2post
Oct 25, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3post
Jun 9, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 4

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L
Jul 4vs SD3 − 0W
Jul 3vs SD4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L
Jul 6at TB5 − 1W
Jul 5vs MIN1 − 6L
Jul 4vs MIN4 − 11L