bayesRatings

Pirates at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final PIT 5 – NYY 3
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PIT0000201002570
NYY0000003000360
Team box
PIT·NYY
7
hits
6
2
home runs
1
3
walks
5
17
strikeouts
12
160
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY1-5113
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4311
Jacob GonzalezPIT1-4112
Jake MangumPIT2-5001
Jared TrioloPIT1-2001
Ryan McMahonNYY1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch KellerPIT5.03026
Mason Montgomery (W)PIT1.10012
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.00001
Gerrit ColeNYY7.043011
Fernando Cruz (L)NYY0.12120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
PIT +3
12345678910
largest lead: NYY 0 · PIT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, NYY 55% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.3 PIT
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupYankees
+123Our fair odds−123
4.3Expected runs4.7
+0.03Power rating+0.17
5.3Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game3.9
9.1Hits / game7.8
1.29Home runs / game1.46
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
52−49Season record56−44
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYY chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12345%+16637.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12355%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYY
Jul 20 at NYY
last game
Jul 20 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
PIT·NYY
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.3
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
52−49
season record
56−44
27−24
home record
25−22
25−25
away record
31−22
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
9.1
hits / game
7.8
1.29
home runs / game
1.46
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.59
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

PIT · NYY · 116 days
Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
Jul 20at NYYNYY 8 − 5
Apr 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at PITNYY 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at PITNYY 9 − 4
Sep 29, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2024at NYYPIT 9 − 4
Sep 27, 2024at NYYPIT 4 − 2
Sep 17, 2023at PITPIT 3 − 2
Sep 16, 2023at PITNYY 6 − 3
Sep 15, 2023at PITNYY 7 − 5

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 20vs PIT8 − 5W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 1W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 8L
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L