bayesRatings

Yankees at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 5:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final NYY 3 – PHI 1
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY001001100370
PHI100000000172
Team box
NYY·PHI
7
hits
7
2
home runs
0
1
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jasson DominguezNYY1-4111
Austin WellsNYY1-2211
Cody BellingerNYY2-4001
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4000
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3000
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Weathers (W)NYY5.26117
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00000
Tim MayzaPHI2.00001
Kyle Backhus (L)PHI0.20112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · NYY 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 51%, PHI 49% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.5 – 4.0 PHI
Expected total
8.6
YankeesThe matchupPhillies
−104Our fair odds+104
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.18Power rating+0.09
4.7Runs / game4.3
3.8Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.9
1.44Home runs / game1.30
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
58−45Season record56−48
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · PHI chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−10451%−12655.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10449%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byPHI wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more30%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PHITim Mayza RP · last 3 starts: 4.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·PHI
Jul 24 at PHI
last game
Jul 24 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
NYY·PHI
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.7
runs / game
4.3
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−45
season record
56−48
26−23
home record
27−26
32−22
away record
29−22
W2
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.9
1.44
home runs / game
1.30
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.56
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYY · PHI · 119 days
New York YankeesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 3−7
Jul 24at PHINYY 1 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at NYYPHI 9 − 4
Jul 25, 2025at NYYPHI 12 − 5
Jul 31, 2024at PHINYY 6 − 5
Jul 30, 2024at PHINYY 7 − 6
Jul 29, 2024at PHINYY 14 − 4
Apr 5, 2023at NYYNYY 4 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at NYYPHI 4 − 1
Apr 3, 2023at NYYNYY 8 − 1

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 24at PHI1 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT2 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT3 − 5L
Jul 20vs PIT8 − 5W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 1W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 8L
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L