bayesRatings

Dodgers at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 21 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final LAD 2 – PHI 1
← MLB / Jul 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000200000251
PHI100000000170
Team box
LAD·PHI
5
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
1
11
strikeouts
11
115
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD1-4112
Alec BohmPHI3-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4000
Andy PagesLAD1-4100
Eliezer AlfonzoLAD1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD6.15117
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.22002
Zack Wheeler (L)PHI7.05209

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, PHI 46% · Updated Jul 21

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.7
DodgersThe matchupPhillies
−117Our fair odds+117
4.8Expected runs3.8
+0.33Power rating+0.11
5.2Runs / game4.4
3.7Allowed / game4.5
8.8Hits / game8.0
1.30Home runs / game1.32
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
63−38Season record56−45
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · PHI chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11754%−10350.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11746%−12154.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byPHI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 23 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 34 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·PHI
Jul 20 at PHI
last game
Jul 20 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
LAD·PHI
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
5.2
runs / game
4.4
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
63−38
season record
56−45
31−19
home record
27−23
32−19
away record
29−22
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.0
1.30
home runs / game
1.32
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.36
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

LAD · PHI · 115 days
Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Jul 20at PHIPHI 10 − 7
May 31at LADLAD 9 − 1
May 30at LADPHI 4 − 3
May 29at LADLAD 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at LADPHI 9 − 6

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W