bayesRatings

Dodgers at Phillies

MLB · Monday, Jul 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final LAD 7 – PHI 10
← MLB / Jul 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0001021037110
PHI0400041110112
Team box
LAD·PHI
11
hits
11
2
home runs
5
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
9
129
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trea TurnerPHI3-5225
Mookie BettsLAD4-5323
Bryce HarperPHI1-3111
Derek HillPHI1-1211
Brandon MarshPHI1-4111
Max MuncyLAD1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD5.18616
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI5.17207

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 6 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 55%, PHI 45% · Updated Jul 20

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.6
DodgersThe matchupPhillies
−121Our fair odds+121
4.8Expected runs3.8
+0.34Power rating+0.10
5.2Runs / game4.3
3.6Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.29Home runs / game1.28
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
63−37Season record55−45
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · PHI chance
Our model fair54.7%45.3%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12155%+12444.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+12145%−14859.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byPHI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more46%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·PHI
Jul 19 at NYY
last game
Jul 19 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
LAD·PHI
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
5.2
runs / game
4.3
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
63−37
season record
55−45
31−19
home record
26−23
32−18
away record
29−22
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.29
home runs / game
1.28
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.36
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

LAD · PHI · 114 days
Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
May 31at LADLAD 9 − 1
May 30at LADPHI 4 − 3
May 29at LADLAD 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at LADPHI 9 − 6
Sep 15, 2025at LADPHI 6 − 5

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L
Jul 6vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 5vs SD2 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L
Jul 7at CIN4 − 1W
Jul 6at KC1 − 15L