bayesRatings

Dodgers at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final LAD 9 – PHI 5
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0010220409110
PHI200010011570
Team box
LAD·PHI
11
hits
7
2
home runs
2
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
159
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dalton RushingLAD2-4113
Alec BohmPHI2-4113
Tommy EdmanLAD3-4103
Max MuncyLAD1-5112
Bryan De La CruzPHI1-2111
Freddie FreemanLAD3-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric Lauer (W)LAD5.14315
Aaron Nola (L)PHI5.17514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 2 · LAD 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, PHI 46% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.7
DodgersThe matchupPhillies
−119Our fair odds+119
4.8Expected runs3.8
+0.34Power rating+0.10
5.2Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.29Home runs / game1.30
4.0Walks drawn / game2.9
64−38Season record56−46
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · PHI chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11954%−13156.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11946%+10947.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byPHI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·PHI
Jul 21 at PHI
last game
Jul 21 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
LAD·PHI
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
5.2
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
64−38
season record
56−46
31−19
home record
27−24
33−19
away record
29−22
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.29
home runs / game
1.30
4.0
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.36
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

LAD · PHI · 116 days
Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 3−7
Jul 21at PHILAD 2 − 1
Jul 20at PHIPHI 10 − 7
May 31at LADLAD 9 − 1
May 30at LADPHI 4 − 3
May 29at LADLAD 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1post
Oct 8, 2025at LADPHI 8 − 2post
Oct 6, 2025at PHILAD 4 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at PHILAD 5 − 3post
Sep 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 0

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W
Jul 7vs COL3 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W
Jul 11at DET4 − 2W
Jul 10at DET2 − 10L
Jul 9at CIN1 − 0W
Jul 8at CIN5 − 11L