bayesRatings

Pirates at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final PIT 0 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT000000000030
NYY00000020251
Team box
PIT·NYY
3
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
12
strikeouts
6
111
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jasson DominguezNYY1-3101
Anthony VolpeNYY1-3001
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4000
Cody BellingerNYY1-2100
Ali SanchezNYY1-3000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba ChandlerPIT6.12015
Brandon Eisert (L)PIT0.22211
Max FriedNYY5.01017
Paul Blackburn (W)NYY2.00013
Tim Hill (S)NYY0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, NYY 55% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.3 PIT
Expected total
9.0
PiratesThe matchupYankees
+123Our fair odds−123
4.3Expected runs4.7
+0.03Power rating+0.17
5.3Runs / game4.8
4.8Allowed / game3.9
9.1Hits / game7.8
1.29Home runs / game1.46
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
52−49Season record56−44
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYY chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12345%————
NYYNew York Yankees−12355%————
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 17%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more38%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYY
Jul 22 at NYY
last game
Jul 22 vs PIT
same day
days of rest
same day
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 100+ games
PIT·NYY
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.3
runs / game
4.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
52−49
season record
56−44
27−24
home record
25−22
25−25
away record
31−22
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
9.1
hits / game
7.8
1.29
home runs / game
1.46
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.59
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

PIT · NYY · 116 days
Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 6−4
Jul 20at NYYNYY 8 − 5
Apr 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at PITNYY 10 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at PITNYY 9 − 4
Sep 29, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2024at NYYPIT 9 − 4
Sep 27, 2024at NYYPIT 4 − 2
Sep 17, 2023at PITPIT 3 − 2
Sep 16, 2023at PITNYY 6 − 3
Sep 15, 2023at PITNYY 7 − 5

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 20vs PIT8 − 5W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 1W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 8L
Jul 17vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 12at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 11at WSH4 − 2W
Jul 10at WSH5 − 3W
Jul 9at TB12 − 4W
Jul 8at TB0 − 3L
Jul 7at TB4 − 6L