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Yankees at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final NYY 5 – CHW 6
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
NYY400000000010591
CHW000000130011661
Team box
NYY·CHW
9
hits
6
1
home runs
2
3
walks
4
11
strikeouts
12
163
pitches thrown
205
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer JonesNYY2-4113
Sam AntonacciCHW1-4112
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4311
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-5101
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4001
Edgar QueroCHW1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam SchlittlerNYY6.12118
Ryan Yarbrough (L)NYY0.11000
Davis MartinCHW6.05426
Jordan Hicks (W)CHW1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +4
NYY +4
123456789101112
largest lead: CHW 1 · NYY 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, CHW 46% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
8.8
YankeesThe matchupWhite Sox
−117Our fair odds+117
4.8Expected runs4.1
+0.19Power rating−0.03
4.7Runs / game4.8
3.8Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.42Home runs / game1.29
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
61−46Season record55−51
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · CHW chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−14859.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11746%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byCHW wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 26 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·CHW
Jul 28 at CHW
last game
Jul 28 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
NYY·CHW
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.7
runs / game
4.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
61−46
season record
55−51
26−23
home record
32−21
35−23
away record
23−30
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.42
home runs / game
1.29
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.56
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

NYY · CHW · 123 days
New York YankeesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
Jul 28at CHWNYY 3 − 2
Jul 27at CHWNYY 9 − 5
Jun 18at NYYCHW 5 − 1
Jun 17at NYYNYY 10 − 5
Jun 16at NYYNYY 12 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 3
Sep 24, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at CHWCHW 3 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CHWNYY 5 − 3

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 28at CHW3 − 2W
Jul 27at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 26at PHI4 − 11L
Jul 25at PHI3 − 1W
Jul 24at PHI1 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT2 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT3 − 5L
Jul 20vs PIT8 − 5W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 1W
Jul 19vs LAD2 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Jul 27vs NYY5 − 9L
Jul 26vs HOU12 − 3W
Jul 25vs HOU1 − 4L
Jul 24vs HOU5 − 9L
Jul 22at TEX4 − 2W
Jul 21at TEX0 − 10L
Jul 20at TEX10 − 3W
Jul 19at TOR3 − 0W
Jul 18at TOR0 − 1L