bayesRatings

Cardinals at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final STL 0 – NYY 2
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000000000060
NYY01001000250
Team box
STL·NYY
6
hits
5
0
home runs
2
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
5
109
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-3111
George Lombard Jr.NYY1-2111
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3000
Trent GrishamNYY1-4000
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1-4000
Nelson VelazquezSTL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Dobbins (L)STL6.14234
Ryan Weathers (W)NYY6.04016
David Bednar (S)NYY1.10013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 44%, NYY 56% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
NYY by 0.9
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupYankees
+127Our fair odds−127
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.02Power rating+0.16
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.04Home runs / game1.43
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
56−57Season record63−50
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12744%+17336.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12756%−20867.6%———
SpreadNYY by 0.9
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.9our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.9 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLHunter Dobbins SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·NYY
Aug 3 at NYY
last game
Aug 3 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
STL·NYY
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
56−57
season record
63−50
28−32
home record
26−24
28−25
away record
37−26
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.04
home runs / game
1.43
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.43
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

STL · NYY · 129 days
St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Aug 3at NYYSTL 13 − 7
Aug 17, 2025at STLNYY 8 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at STLNYY 12 − 8
Aug 15, 2025at STLNYY 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2024at NYYSTL 14 − 7
Aug 31, 2024at NYYSTL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 3
Jul 2, 2023at STLSTL 5 − 1
Jul 1, 2023at STLNYY 6 − 2
Jul 1, 2023at STLSTL 11 − 4

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 3vs STL7 − 13L
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L
Jul 29at CHW5 − 6L
Jul 28at CHW3 − 2W
Jul 27at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 26at PHI4 − 11L
Jul 25at PHI3 − 1W