bayesRatings

Cardinals at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final STL 1 – TOR 3
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000010000150
TOR00000102390
Team box
STL·TOR
5
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
11
strikeouts
4
144
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis UriasTOR1-1002
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR3-4000
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4001
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4100
Andres GimenezTOR2-3000
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL6.06113
Peter Strzelecki (L)STL1.00220
Dylan CeaseTOR6.03137
Jeff Hoffman (W)TOR1.00002
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+108Our fair odds−108
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.02
4.4Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.04Home runs / game0.98
3.2Walks drawn / game2.7
54−55Season record50−59
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10848%+15938.6%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10852%−19165.6%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 23.0 IP, 1.17 ERA, 30 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·TOR
Jul 30 vs CHC
last game
Jul 29 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
STL·TOR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.4
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
54−55
season record
50−59
28−32
home record
26−30
26−23
away record
24−29
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.04
home runs / game
0.98
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

STL · TOR · 125 days
St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Jun 11, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at STLTOR 10 − 9
Jun 9, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 4
Sep 15, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 2
Sep 13, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 2, 2023at STLSTL 9 − 4
Apr 1, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 1
Mar 30, 2023at STLTOR 10 − 9
Jul 27, 2022at TORSTL 6 − 1

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L