bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Red Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TOR 1 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000001190
BOS001200306100
Team box
TOR·BOS
9
hits
10
0
home runs
0
1
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
135
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jarren DuranBOS3-4102
Andres GimenezTOR3-4001
Jahmai JonesBOS1-1102
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4001
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4001
Caleb DurbinBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR6.05316
Ranger SuarezBOS4.04006
Greg Weissert (W)BOS1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +6
TOR +6
123456789
largest lead: BOS 6 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
BOS by 0.8
Expected score
BOS 4.4 – 3.6 TOR
Expected total
7.9
Blue JaysThe matchupRed Sox
+119Our fair odds−119
3.6Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.1
0.99Home runs / game0.95
2.7Walks drawn / game3.0
48−57Season record53−50
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+11946%+11945.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11954%−14258.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.8
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.8our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.8 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more43%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 17 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BOS
Jul 25 at BOS
last game
Jul 25 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
TOR·BOS
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
48−57
season record
53−50
26−30
home record
24−29
22−27
away record
29−21
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.1
0.99
home runs / game
0.95
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.66
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TOR · BOS · 120 days
Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Jul 25at BOSTOR 6 − 0
Jul 24at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Jun 18at BOSTOR 4 − 3
Jun 17at BOSTOR 3 − 0
Jun 16at BOSTOR 6 − 1
Apr 29at TORTOR 8 − 1
Apr 28at TORTOR 3 − 0
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W