bayesRatings

Orioles at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 22 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final BAL 5 – BOS 1
← MLB / Jul 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL400000100590
BOS000100000150
Team box
BAL·BOS
9
hits
5
0
home runs
0
4
walks
1
8
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan BeaversBAL2-4102
Johnathan RodriguezBAL2-4001
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-3000
Masataka YoshidaBOS1-4001
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2100
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (W)BAL6.04114
Eduardo Rivera (L)BOS0.23421

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · BAL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, BOS 55% · Updated Jul 22

Expected margin
BOS by 0.9
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 3.6 BAL
Expected total
8.2
OriolesThe matchupRed Sox
+124Our fair odds−124
3.6Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating+0.11
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game3.8
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.19Home runs / game0.96
3.9Walks drawn / game3.0
49−52Season record51−48
7−3Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+12445%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12455%−13156.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.9
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.9our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.9 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more44%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BOSEduardo Rivera SP · last 2 starts: 6.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·BOS
Jul 22 at BOS
last game
Jul 22 vs BAL
same day
days of rest
same day
5
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 99+ games
BAL·BOS
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
49−52
season record
51−48
28−25
home record
22−27
21−27
away record
29−21
L1
streak
W14
7−3
last 10
10−0
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.19
home runs / game
0.96
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.66
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BAL · BOS · 116 days
Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Jul 20at BOSBOS 6 − 5
Jun 4at BOSBAL 8 − 2
Jun 3at BOSBOS 8 − 1
Jun 2at BOSBAL 4 − 2
Apr 26at BALBOS 5 − 3
Apr 25at BALBOS 17 − 1
Apr 24at BALBAL 10 − 3
Aug 28, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at BALBOS 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at BALBOS 5 − 0

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W
Jul 12vs KC8 − 2W
Jul 11vs KC6 − 1W
Jul 10vs KC5 − 3W
Jul 9vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 8vs CHC7 − 9L
Jul 7vs CHC2 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W
Jul 10at NYM6 − 2W
Jul 9at CHW2 − 1W
Jul 8at CHW5 − 0W