Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| BOS | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Player | Team | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Caleb Durbin | BOS | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer (L) | BAL | 6.0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Jake Bennett (W) | BOS | 5.2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Aroldis Chapman (S) | BOS | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was BAL 45%, BOS 55% · Updated Jul 22
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CT | Polymarket US | ProphetX | Novig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| BALBaltimore Orioles | +12445% | +11945.7% | — | — | — |
| BOSBoston Red Sox | −12455% | −14258.7% | — | — | — |
| SpreadBOS by 0.9 | |||||
| BALBaltimore Orioles | +0.9our margin | — | — | — | — |
| BOSBoston Red Sox | −0.9our margin | — | — | — | — |
| Totalwe expect 8.2 | |||||
| Over | 8.2our total | — | — | — | — |
| Under | 8.2our total | — | — | — | — |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Boston Red Sox by 0.9 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Total range
8.2 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Starting Pitchers
from the box scoreStarting pitchers are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.