bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final TOR 6 – BOS 0
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR0050000016150
BOS000000000010
Team box
TOR·BOS
15
hits
1
1
home runs
0
1
walks
3
9
strikeouts
12
120
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR2-5113
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-4102
Ernie ClementTOR3-4001
Nathan LukesTOR2-5100
Andres GimenezTOR2-4100
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR9.010312
Sonny Gray (L)BOS5.010503

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +6
TOR +6
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · TOR 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 45%, BOS 55% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
BOS by 0.9
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 3.5 TOR
Expected total
8.0
Blue JaysThe matchupRed Sox
+121Our fair odds−121
3.5Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.12
3.9Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.2
0.99Home runs / game0.96
2.7Walks drawn / game3.0
47−57Season record53−49
2−8Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+12145%−10751.8%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12155%−11252.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.9
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.9our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.9 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 18%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more44%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 27 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BOS
Jul 24 at BOS
last game
Jul 24 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
TOR·BOS
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.9
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
47−57
season record
53−49
26−30
home record
24−28
21−27
away record
29−21
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
9−1
8.1
hits / game
8.2
0.99
home runs / game
0.96
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.66
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TOR · BOS · 119 days
Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Jul 24at BOSBOS 6 − 4
Jun 18at BOSTOR 4 − 3
Jun 17at BOSTOR 3 − 0
Jun 16at BOSTOR 6 − 1
Apr 29at TORTOR 8 − 1
Apr 28at TORTOR 3 − 0
Apr 27at TORBOS 5 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at TORBOS 7 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at TORBOS 4 − 1

TOR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L
Jul 12at SD4 − 5L
Jul 11at SD7 − 8L

BOS · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W
Jul 12at NYM3 − 2W
Jul 11at NYM4 − 0W