bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final TOR 3 – WSH 2
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR002100000371
WSH010010000280
Team box
TOR·WSH
7
hits
8
1
home runs
1
4
walks
4
3
strikeouts
13
152
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis UriasTOR1-2111
Andres ChaparroWSH1-2111
Myles StrawTOR2-4101
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-5001
Ernie ClementTOR1-5001
Nasim NunezWSH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max ScherzerTOR2.24134
Mason Fluharty (W)TOR1.10001
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01012
Eddy Yean (L)WSH2.13200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 1 · TOR 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 5.5 – 5.4 WSH
Expected total
10.9
Blue JaysThe matchupNationals
+104Our fair odds−104
5.5Expected runs5.4
−0.02Power rating−0.04
3.9Runs / game5.5
4.5Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game8.8
0.98Home runs / game1.47
2.7Walks drawn / game3.5
48−58Season record54−52
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10449%+10548.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10451%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byWSH wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.549%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 10.80 ERA, 5 Kstarted
WSHEddy Yean RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·WSH
Jul 26 at BOS
last game
Jul 26 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
TOR·WSH
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.9
runs / game
5.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.2
48−58
season record
54−52
26−30
home record
22−32
22−28
away record
32−20
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.8
0.98
home runs / game
1.47
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.65
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

TOR · WSH · 121 days
Toronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Apr 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Mar 31, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 2
May 5, 2024at WSHWSH 11 − 8
May 4, 2024at WSHTOR 6 − 3
May 3, 2024at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 30, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 0
Aug 29, 2023at TORWSH 5 − 4
Aug 28, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 3
Aug 18, 2021at WSHWSH 8 − 5

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 17vs CHW4 − 12L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L