bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ARI 3 – WSH 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI020000100380
WSH000200000270
Team box
ARI·WSH
8
hits
7
0
home runs
1
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
7
122
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan CrewsWSH2-4112
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4001
Tim TawaARI2-4001
Ketel MarteARI1-5101
CJ AbramsWSH2-4100
Max KeplerARI1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI6.07234
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001
Carson PalmquistWSH1.12231
Zack Littell (L)WSH5.04115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · ARI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 51%, WSH 49% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
ARI by 0.7
Expected score
ARI 6.0 – 5.3 WSH
Expected total
11.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupNationals
−103Our fair odds+103
6.0Expected runs5.3
+0.04Power rating−0.05
4.5Runs / game5.5
4.5Allowed / game5.3
8.1Hits / game8.7
0.98Home runs / game1.46
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
54−49Season record52−51
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10351%−12655.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10349%+10548.7%———
SpreadARI by 0.7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 0.7 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byWSH wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more44%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 11 Kstarted
WSHCarson Palmquist RP · last 3 starts: 5.2 IP, 14.29 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·WSH
Jul 23 at STL
last game
Jul 22 at COL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
ARI·WSH
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.5
runs / game
5.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.3
54−49
season record
52−51
31−22
home record
20−31
23−27
away record
32−20
W3
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.7
0.98
home runs / game
1.46
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.37
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

ARI · WSH · 118 days
Arizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Jun 7at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jun 6at ARIWSH 6 − 1
Jun 5at ARIWSH 14 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ARIWSH 11 − 7
May 30, 2025at ARIWSH 9 − 7
Apr 6, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 4, 2025at WSHARI 6 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at ARIARI 5 − 4

ARI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W
Jul 12vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 11vs NYY2 − 4L
Jul 10vs NYY3 − 5L
Jul 8vs HOU8 − 2W