bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, Jul 23 · 4:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final ARI 10 – STL 6
← MLB / Jul 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI00031005110160
STL2000000046130
Team box
ARI·STL
16
hits
13
1
home runs
0
5
walks
2
6
strikeouts
2
133
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler LocklearARI3-5213
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4102
Lars NootbaarSTL2-5003
Nolan ArenadoARI2-2002
Adrian Del CastilloARI3-5301
Ildemaro VargasARI3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Pfaadt (W)ARI6.07221
Michael McGreevy (L)STL6.17433

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +8
ARI +8
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · ARI 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, STL 51% · Updated Jul 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.5 – 4.3 STL
Expected total
8.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupCardinals
+103Our fair odds−103
4.5Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.00
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.0
0.98Home runs / game1.09
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
53−49Season record52−49
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · STL chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10349%+10149.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10351%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySTL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·STL
Jul 22 vs ATH
last game
Jul 22 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
ARI·STL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
53−49
season record
52−49
31−22
home record
26−26
22−27
away record
26−23
W2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.0
0.98
home runs / game
1.09
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.37
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

ARI · STL · 117 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 3−7
Jul 19at ARIARI 8 − 7
Jul 18at ARIARI 5 − 3
Jul 17at ARISTL 5 − 4
Jun 24at STLARI 9 − 4
Jun 23at STLARI 4 − 3
Jun 22at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 20, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at ARIARI 10 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at ARIARI 7 − 3
May 25, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3

ARI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L
Jul 12at LAD5 − 3W
Jul 11at LAD9 − 2W
Jul 10at LAD9 − 3W
Jul 9at SD3 − 1W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W
Jul 9vs MIL4 − 8L