bayesRatings

Reds at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CIN 4 – STL 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN0001002014110
STL000020000220
Team box
CIN·STL
11
hits
2
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
131
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-4112
Tyler StephensonCIN2-3001
Sal StewartCIN2-5101
Blaze JordanSTL1-3002
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-5000
JJ BledayCIN1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Rhett LowderCIN5.01224
Julian Garcia (W)CIN0.10001
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.00002
Dustin MaySTL6.07118
George Soriano (L)STL1.03201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · CIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, STL 53% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupCardinals
+111Our fair odds−111
4.2Expected runs4.5
−0.06Power rating−0.01
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.33Home runs / game1.08
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
47−54Season record52−50
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+12444.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11153%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 12.08 ERA, 16 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·STL
Jul 22 at SEA
last game
Jul 23 vs ARI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 101+ games
CIN·STL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
47−54
season record
52−50
22−28
home record
26−27
25−26
away record
26−23
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.33
home runs / game
1.08
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.52
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CIN · STL · 118 days
Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6
Aug 31, 2025at CINCIN 7 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at CINSTL 4 − 2

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L
Jul 10vs CHC4 − 0W
Jul 9vs PHI0 − 1L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L
Jul 11vs ATL4 − 1W
Jul 10vs ATL2 − 1W