bayesRatings

Cubs at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CHC 7 – STL 3
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC1110200027150
STL010002000370
Team box
CHC·STL
15
hits
7
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
6
138
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC4-5214
Alex BregmanCHC4-5312
Jose FerminSTL1-4111
Miguel AmayaCHC2-4001
Masyn WinnSTL2-4101
Carson KellyCHC2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (W)CHC5.23223
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL3.28325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · CHC 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 53%, STL 47% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.9 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupCardinals
−114Our fair odds+114
4.9Expected runs4.0
+0.18Power rating−0.01
5.2Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.4Hits / game8.0
1.25Home runs / game1.06
4.4Walks drawn / game3.2
59−46Season record53−52
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · STL chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11453%−12655.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11447%+10548.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySTL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more34%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 9 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·STL
Jul 26 at PIT
last game
Jul 26 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
CHC·STL
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
5.2
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
59−46
season record
53−52
30−22
home record
27−29
29−24
away record
26−23
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.0
1.25
home runs / game
1.06
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.39
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHC · STL · 121 days
Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jul 5at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jul 4at CHCSTL 3 − 0
Jul 3at CHCSTL 17 − 1
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1
May 30at STLCHC 6 − 1
May 29at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at CHCCHC 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L
Jul 25at PIT11 − 0W
Jul 24at PIT3 − 2W
Jul 22vs DET1 − 5L
Jul 21vs DET11 − 2W
Jul 20vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 19vs MIN10 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIN6 − 2W
Jul 17vs MIN2 − 5L
Jul 12at CIN8 − 4W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W