bayesRatings

Cubs at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CHC 3 – PIT 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CHC0000010002360
PIT0000100001280
Team box
CHC·PIT
6
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
124
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4111
Henry DavisPIT2-3101
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4001
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4000
Jake MangumPIT2-5000
Nick GonzalesPIT1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew BoydCHC7.07134
Caleb Thielbar (W)CHC1.00001
Gavin Hollowell (S)CHC1.00000
Jared JonesPIT6.02115
Yohan Ramirez (L)PIT1.02122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
CHC +3
12345678910
largest lead: PIT 1 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 52%, PIT 48% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.4 PIT
Expected total
9.5
CubsThe matchupPirates
−107Our fair odds+107
5.1Expected runs4.4
+0.16Power rating+0.03
5.1Runs / game5.3
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game9.1
1.25Home runs / game1.28
4.4Walks drawn / game3.7
57−45Season record53−50
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PIT chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10752%−10751.8%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10748%−11252.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPIT wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PIT
Jul 22 vs DET
last game
Jul 22 at NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 102+ games
CHC·PIT
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.1
runs / game
5.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
57−45
season record
53−50
30−22
home record
27−24
27−23
away record
26−26
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
9.1
1.25
home runs / game
1.28
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.39
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

CHC · PIT · 118 days
Chicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
May 28at PITCHC 7 − 2
May 27at PITCHC 10 − 4
May 26at PITPIT 12 − 1
May 25at PITPIT 2 − 1
Apr 12at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 11at CHCPIT 4 − 3
Apr 10at CHCPIT 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at PITCHC 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 1
Sep 15, 2025at PITCHC 4 − 0

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 22vs DET1 − 5L
Jul 21vs DET11 − 2W
Jul 20vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 19vs MIN10 − 1W
Jul 18vs MIN6 − 2W
Jul 17vs MIN2 − 5L
Jul 12at CIN8 − 4W
Jul 11at CIN5 − 3W
Jul 10at CIN0 − 4L
Jul 9at BAL2 − 3L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L