bayesRatings

Reds at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CIN 5 – STL 3
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CIN00101000035103
STL0110000001360
Team box
CIN·STL
10
hits
6
2
home runs
1
3
walks
5
13
strikeouts
8
176
pitches thrown
161
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathaniel LoweCIN3-5002
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5211
Ivan HerreraSTL2-5111
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN1-2111
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5101
Noelvi MarteCIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN6.03244
Brock Burke (W)CIN1.10002
Julian Garcia (S)CIN1.02001
Kyle LeahySTL6.06219
Matt Svanson (L)STL0.12200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CIN +3
12345678910
largest lead: STL 1 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, STL 53% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.5 – 4.1 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupCardinals
+112Our fair odds−112
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating−0.01
4.1Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.0
1.31Home runs / game1.06
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
48−55Season record53−51
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11247%+10947.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11253%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more39%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 17 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 0.64 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·STL
Jul 25 at STL
last game
Jul 25 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
CIN·STL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
48−55
season record
53−51
22−28
home record
27−28
26−27
away record
26−23
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.0
1.31
home runs / game
1.06
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.52
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CIN · STL · 120 days
Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Jul 25at STLSTL 7 − 0
Jul 24at STLCIN 4 − 2
Jun 7at STLSTL 5 − 3
Jun 6at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 5at STLSTL 10 − 3
May 23at CINCIN 7 − 6
May 23at CINSTL 8 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at STLCIN 6 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Sep 15, 2025at STLCIN 11 − 6

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L
Jul 11vs CHC3 − 5L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 19at ARI7 − 8L
Jul 18at ARI3 − 5L
Jul 17at ARI5 − 4W
Jul 12vs ATL3 − 4L