bayesRatings

Cubs at Cardinals

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final CHC 4 – STL 2
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
CHC00010010024110
STL01000010002101
Team box
CHC·STL
11
hits
10
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
5
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ WetherholtSTL2-5111
Alex BregmanCHC2-4201
Nico HoernerCHC3-5000
Michael BuschCHC2-5001
Bryan TorresSTL2-4001
Ian HappCHC1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier AssadCHC4.16126
Jacob Webb (W)CHC1.11000
Aaron Civale (S)CHC0.20001
Andre PallanteSTL6.17223
Luis Gastelum (L)STL1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CHC +3
12345678910
largest lead: STL 1 · CHC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, STL 46% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
CHC by 1.1
Expected score
CHC 5.0 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.9
CubsThe matchupCardinals
−117Our fair odds+117
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.19Power rating−0.02
5.2Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.5Hits / game8.0
1.24Home runs / game1.04
4.3Walks drawn / game3.2
61−47Season record54−54
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · STL chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11754%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11746%−11252.7%———
SpreadCHC by 1.1
CHCChicago Cubs−1.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.1 expected
Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySTL wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more46%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·STL
Jul 29 at STL
last game
Jul 29 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
CHC·STL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.2
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
61−47
season record
54−54
30−22
home record
28−31
31−25
away record
26−23
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.5
hits / game
8.0
1.24
home runs / game
1.04
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.38
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHC · STL · 124 days
Chicago CubsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Jul 29at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 28at STLCHC 10 − 2
Jul 27at STLCHC 7 − 3
Jul 5at CHCCHC 6 − 4
Jul 4at CHCSTL 3 − 0
Jul 3at CHCSTL 17 − 1
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1
May 30at STLCHC 6 − 1
May 29at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L
Jul 28at STL10 − 2W
Jul 27at STL7 − 3W
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L
Jul 25at PIT11 − 0W
Jul 24at PIT3 − 2W
Jul 22vs DET1 − 5L
Jul 21vs DET11 − 2W
Jul 20vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 19vs MIN10 − 1W

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W
Jul 21at LAA1 − 5L
Jul 20at LAA2 − 3L