bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final TOR 6 – WSH 8
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR001110030682
WSH40031000882
Team box
TOR·WSH
8
hits
8
2
home runs
2
2
walks
8
6
strikeouts
7
173
pitches thrown
153
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR1-3113
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-5112
Kazuma OkamotoTOR1-2211
Dylan CrewsWSH1-4211
Nathan LukesTOR2-4200
Keibert RuizWSH1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Bieber (L)TOR0.21460
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH6.06223
Clayton Beeter (S)WSH1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 5 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 5.5 – 5.3 WSH
Expected total
10.8
Blue JaysThe matchupNationals
+103Our fair odds−103
5.5Expected runs5.3
−0.01Power rating−0.05
3.9Runs / game5.5
4.5Allowed / game5.2
8.1Hits / game8.8
0.98Home runs / game1.47
2.7Walks drawn / game3.5
49−58Season record54−53
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10349%+11945.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10351%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byWSH wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 13 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·WSH
Jul 27 at WSH
last game
Jul 27 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
TOR·WSH
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.9
runs / game
5.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.2
49−58
season record
54−53
26−30
home record
22−33
23−28
away record
32−20
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.8
0.98
home runs / game
1.47
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.65
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

TOR · WSH · 122 days
Toronto Blue JaysWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Jul 27at WSHTOR 3 − 2
Apr 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Mar 31, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 2
May 5, 2024at WSHWSH 11 − 8
May 4, 2024at WSHTOR 6 − 3
May 3, 2024at WSHWSH 9 − 3
Aug 30, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 0
Aug 29, 2023at TORWSH 5 − 4
Aug 28, 2023at TORTOR 6 − 3

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L
Jul 20vs TB1 − 7L
Jul 19vs CHW0 − 3L
Jul 18vs CHW1 − 0W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 27vs TOR2 − 3L
Jul 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Jul 25vs ARI5 − 3W
Jul 24vs ARI2 − 3L
Jul 22at COL8 − 0W
Jul 21at COL7 − 8L
Jul 20at COL7 − 3W
Jul 19at ATH5 − 2W
Jul 18at ATH1 − 15L
Jul 17at ATH23 − 4W