bayesRatings

Yankees at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 6:15 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final NYY 2 – CHC 5
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000010100280
CHC10000031571
Team box
NYY·CHC
8
hits
7
1
home runs
1
2
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC2-4111
Spencer JonesNYY2-4211
Ali SanchezNYY3-4000
Michael BuschCHC1-4001
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-3001
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max FriedNYY5.12117
Fernando Cruz (L)NYY0.21210
David PetersonCHC6.15108
Trent Thornton (W)CHC0.21020
Caleb Thielbar (S)CHC1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · NYY 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 48%, CHC 52% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.5 NYY
Expected total
9.0
YankeesThe matchupCubs
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.18Power rating+0.19
4.6Runs / game5.1
3.8Allowed / game4.3
7.7Hits / game8.5
1.41Home runs / game1.22
3.7Walks drawn / game4.3
62−48Season record62−48
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · CHC chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees+10748%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−10752%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York YankeesPKour margin————
CHCChicago CubsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more36%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more26%
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·CHC
Jul 31 at CHC
last game
Jul 31 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
NYY·CHC
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.6
runs / game
5.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
62−48
season record
62−48
26−23
home record
30−23
36−25
away record
32−25
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.5
1.41
home runs / game
1.22
3.7
walks drawn / game
4.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.55
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

NYY · CHC · 126 days
New York YankeesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Jul 31at CHCNYY 2 − 0
Jul 13, 2025at NYYCHC 4 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at NYYCHC 5 − 2
Jul 11, 2025at NYYNYY 11 − 0
Sep 8, 2024at CHCCHC 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2024at CHCNYY 2 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at CHCNYY 3 − 0
Jul 9, 2023at NYYCHC 7 − 4
Jul 8, 2023at NYYNYY 6 − 3
Jul 7, 2023at NYYCHC 3 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L
Jul 29at CHW5 − 6L
Jul 28at CHW3 − 2W
Jul 27at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 26at PHI4 − 11L
Jul 25at PHI3 − 1W
Jul 24at PHI1 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT2 − 0W
Jul 22vs PIT3 − 5L

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 31vs NYY0 − 2L
Jul 30at STL4 − 2W
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L
Jul 28at STL10 − 2W
Jul 27at STL7 − 3W
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L
Jul 25at PIT11 − 0W
Jul 24at PIT3 − 2W
Jul 22vs DET1 − 5L
Jul 21vs DET11 − 2W