bayesRatings

Cardinals at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final STL 5 – TOR 1
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL001000004581
TOR000000010151
Team box
STL·TOR
8
hits
5
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL2-5002
Jose FerminSTL1-4001
Lars NootbaarSTL1-5101
Luis UriasTOR1-3001
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4000
Blaze JordanSTL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew LiberatoreSTL6.01017
George Soriano (W)STL1.02101
Max ScherzerTOR6.04115
Louis Varland (L)TOR0.23110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 47%, TOR 53% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+111Our fair odds−111
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.02Home runs / game0.96
3.2Walks drawn / game2.7
54−57Season record52−59
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11147%+10947.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 18 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 8.1 IP, 14.04 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·TOR
Aug 1 at TOR
last game
Aug 1 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
STL·TOR
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
54−57
season record
52−59
28−32
home record
28−30
26−25
away record
24−29
L3
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.02
home runs / game
0.96
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.43
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

STL · TOR · 127 days
St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 8−2
Aug 1at TORTOR 5 − 1
Jul 31at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at STLTOR 10 − 9
Jun 9, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 4
Sep 15, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 2
Sep 13, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 2, 2023at STLSTL 9 − 4
Apr 1, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 1

STL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 31vs STL3 − 1W
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L