bayesRatings

Cardinals at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final STL 1 – TOR 5
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0000010001110
TOR00110030590
Team box
STL·TOR
11
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
4
150
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR2-4102
Alejandro KirkTOR1-2002
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4000
Masyn WinnSTL1-3001
Jordan WalkerSTL2-5000
Blaze JordanSTL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Quinn Mathews (L)STL5.06233
Kevin Gausman (W)TOR5.29114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 4 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 48%, TOR 52% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+109Our fair odds−109
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.01
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.03Home runs / game0.97
3.2Walks drawn / game2.7
54−56Season record51−59
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10948%+14640.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−10952%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLQuinn Mathews SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·TOR
Jul 31 at TOR
last game
Jul 31 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
STL·TOR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
54−56
season record
51−59
28−32
home record
27−30
26−24
away record
24−29
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.03
home runs / game
0.97
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

STL · TOR · 126 days
St. Louis CardinalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 8−2
Jul 31at TORTOR 3 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at STLTOR 10 − 9
Jun 9, 2025at STLTOR 5 − 4
Sep 15, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at TORTOR 7 − 2
Sep 13, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 2, 2023at STLSTL 9 − 4
Apr 1, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 1
Mar 30, 2023at STLTOR 10 − 9

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 23vs ARI6 − 10L
Jul 22at LAA1 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 31vs STL3 − 1W
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W
Jul 22vs TB2 − 4L
Jul 21vs TB2 − 12L