bayesRatings

Cardinals at Yankees

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final STL 13 – NYY 7
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL21120007013130
NYY0000304007100
Team box
STL·NYY
13
hits
10
5
home runs
5
7
walks
1
11
strikeouts
9
168
pitches thrown
201
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL3-5336
Nathan ChurchSTL2-3214
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2-4112
Austin WellsNYY2-4112
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4211
Trent GrishamNYY2-5211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevySTL4.14215
Gordon Graceffo (W)STL2.00002
Cam SchlittlerNYY3.04456
Angel Chivilli (L)NYY1.05610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: NYY 1 · STL 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupYankees
+132Our fair odds−132
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.04Power rating+0.18
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game3.8
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.01Home runs / game1.40
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
55−57Season record63−49
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+13243%+19833.5%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13257%−23970.5%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·NYY
Aug 2 at TOR
last game
Aug 2 at CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
STL·NYY
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
55−57
season record
63−49
28−32
home record
26−23
27−25
away record
37−26
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.01
home runs / game
1.40
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.44
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

STL · NYY · 128 days
St. Louis CardinalsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Aug 17, 2025at STLNYY 8 − 4
Aug 16, 2025at STLNYY 12 − 8
Aug 15, 2025at STLNYY 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2024at NYYSTL 14 − 7
Aug 31, 2024at NYYSTL 6 − 5
Aug 30, 2024at NYYNYY 6 − 3
Jul 2, 2023at STLSTL 5 − 1
Jul 1, 2023at STLNYY 6 − 2
Jul 1, 2023at STLSTL 11 − 4
Aug 7, 2022at STLSTL 12 − 9

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L
Jul 26vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 25vs CIN7 − 0W
Jul 24vs CIN2 − 4L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 2at CHC2 − 1W
Aug 1at CHC2 − 5L
Jul 31at CHC2 − 0W
Jul 30at CHW1 − 2L
Jul 29at CHW5 − 6L
Jul 28at CHW3 − 2W
Jul 27at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 26at PHI4 − 11L
Jul 25at PHI3 − 1W
Jul 24at PHI1 − 0W