bayesRatings

Rockies at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 6:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final COL 8 – STL 6
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL1030120018110
STL2000110116100
Team box
COL·STL
11
hits
10
2
home runs
1
3
walks
6
5
strikeouts
5
185
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL4-5423
Cole CarriggCOL2-5202
Jose FerminSTL2-2102
Ivan HerreraSTL3-5201
Jordan WalkerSTL1-5111
TJ RumfieldCOL2-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle FreelandCOL4.15133
Parker Mushinski (W)COL1.11010
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.02101
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.09523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
COL +4
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · COL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 38%, STL 62% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
STL by 1.1
Expected score
STL 5.1 – 4.0 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupCardinals
+164Our fair odds−164
4.0Expected runs5.1
−0.45Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.3
5.7Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game1.03
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
45−71Season record58−58
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · STL chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+16438%+13442.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−16462%−16161.7%———
SpreadSTL by 1.1
COLColorado Rockies+1.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 1.1 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more45%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 4.43 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·STL
Aug 7 at STL
last game
Aug 7 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
COL·STL
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.3
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
45−71
season record
58−58
27−32
home record
29−32
18−39
away record
29−26
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
1.03
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.63
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

COL · STL · 133 days
Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Aug 7at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at STLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at STLCOL 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2025at COLSTL 6 − 2
Sep 26, 2024at COLCOL 10 − 8
Sep 25, 2024at COLSTL 5 − 2
Sep 24, 2024at COLSTL 7 − 3

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Aug 7vs COL3 − 2W
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L