bayesRatings

Rays at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final TB 9 – COL 7
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
TB005000002029120
COL104200000007110
Team box
TB·COL
12
hits
11
1
home runs
2
5
walks
2
11
strikeouts
8
148
pitches thrown
188
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksTB2-5114
Mickey MoniakCOL1-3113
Willi CastroCOL1-5112
Jonathan ArandaTB1-5103
Jake McCarthyCOL3-5200
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy PeraltaTB3.29713
Garrett Cleavinger (W)TB0.20000
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00002
Gabriel HughesCOL5.14527
Nick Frasso (L)COL1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
TB +4
1234567891011
largest lead: COL 2 · TB 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 61%, COL 39% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
TB by 1.7
Expected score
TB 6.4 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.2
RaysThe matchupRockies
−158Our fair odds+158
6.4Expected runs4.8
+0.09Power rating−0.42
4.4Runs / game4.8
4.1Allowed / game5.7
8.6Hits / game8.7
1.02Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
66−46Season record45−68
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.2%38.8%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−15861%−17563.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+15839%+14640.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.7
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.7our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.7 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 18 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 17 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 16 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 15 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCOL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more51%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 15 Kstarted
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·COL
Aug 3 at COL
last game
Aug 3 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
TB·COL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.42
4.4
runs / game
4.8
4.1
runs allowed / game
5.7
66−46
season record
45−68
41−18
home record
27−30
25−28
away record
18−38
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.7
1.02
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.60
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

TB · COL · 129 days
Tampa Bay RaysColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Aug 3at COLTB 13 − 9
Mar 30, 2025at TBTB 6 − 4
Mar 29, 2025at TBCOL 2 − 1
Mar 28, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at COLTB 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at COLTB 8 − 6
Apr 5, 2024at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 24, 2023at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at TBTB 6 − 5
Aug 22, 2023at TBTB 12 − 4

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Aug 3at COL13 − 9W
Aug 2vs CHW1 − 9L
Aug 1vs CHW1 − 0W
Jul 31vs CHW1 − 6L
Jul 30vs TEX3 − 2W
Jul 29vs TEX3 − 0W
Jul 28vs TEX1 − 4L
Jul 26vs CLE1 − 0W
Jul 25vs CLE3 − 0W
Jul 24vs CLE11 − 3W

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L
Jul 24at MIL5 − 2W
Jul 22vs WSH0 − 8L