bayesRatings

Rockies at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final COL 2 – STL 3
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL0101000002100
STL02100000350
Team box
COL·STL
10
hits
5
0
home runs
1
1
walks
4
10
strikeouts
7
134
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL1-4111
Jake McCarthyCOL3-4000
TJ RumfieldCOL3-4200
Willi CastroCOL2-4000
Troy JohnstonCOL0-2002
Mickey MoniakCOL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (L)COL5.15332
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.08208
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 38%, STL 62% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
STL by 1.1
Expected score
STL 5.2 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
9.3
RockiesThe matchupCardinals
+164Our fair odds−164
4.1Expected runs5.2
−0.45Power rating−0.02
4.8Runs / game4.3
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.13Home runs / game1.03
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
45−70Season record57−58
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · STL chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+16438%+14640.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−16462%−17563.6%———
SpreadSTL by 1.1
COLColorado Rockies+1.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 1.1 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more45%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more35%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 11.47 ERA, 10 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·STL
Aug 5 vs TB
last game
Aug 5 at NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
COL·STL
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.3
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
45−70
season record
57−58
27−32
home record
28−32
18−38
away record
29−26
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.13
home runs / game
1.03
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.63
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

COL · STL · 132 days
Colorado RockiesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Aug 13, 2025at STLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at STLCOL 3 − 0
Aug 11, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 0
Jul 22, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2025at COLSTL 6 − 2
Sep 26, 2024at COLCOL 10 − 8
Sep 25, 2024at COLSTL 5 − 2
Sep 24, 2024at COLSTL 7 − 3
Jun 9, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L
Jul 28at SD7 − 8L
Jul 26at MIL2 − 11L
Jul 25at MIL5 − 8L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 5at NYY3 − 1W
Aug 4at NYY0 − 2L
Aug 3at NYY13 − 7W
Aug 2at TOR5 − 1W
Aug 1at TOR1 − 5L
Jul 31at TOR1 − 3L
Jul 30vs CHC2 − 4L
Jul 29vs CHC3 − 2W
Jul 28vs CHC2 − 10L
Jul 27vs CHC3 − 7L