bayesRatings

Astros at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final HOU 1 – SF 4
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU010000000152
SF01011100490
Team box
HOU·SF
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
3
walks
3
4
strikeouts
8
137
pitches thrown
138
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce EldridgeSF1-4111
Drew CavanaughSF2-4101
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4000
Willy AdamesSF2-4000
Osleivis BasabeSF2-4000
Christian KossSF1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hunter Brown (L)HOU5.05334
Carson Whisenhunt (W)SF5.24132
JT Brubaker (S)SF1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 51%, SF 49% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.4 – 4.2 SF
Expected total
8.7
AstrosThe matchupGiants
−106Our fair odds+106
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.12
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.8Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game8.5
1.35Home runs / game1.12
3.4Walks drawn / game2.6
61−59Season record49−70
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SF chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi66.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros−10651%−19966.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10649%+15938.6%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 14%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins bySF wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 20 Kstarted
SFCarson Whisenhunt SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 10.80 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SF
Aug 10 at SF
last game
Aug 10 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
HOU·SF
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
61−59
season record
49−70
30−29
home record
27−30
31−30
away record
22−40
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
8.5
1.35
home runs / game
1.12
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.42
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

HOU · SF · 136 days
Houston AstrosSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 7−3
Aug 10at SFHOU 6 − 3
Apr 2, 2025at HOUSF 6 − 3
Apr 1, 2025at HOUSF 3 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at HOUSF 7 − 2
Jun 12, 2024at SFSF 5 − 3
Jun 11, 2024at SFHOU 3 − 1
Jun 10, 2024at SFSF 4 − 3
May 3, 2023at HOUSF 4 − 2
May 2, 2023at HOUSF 2 − 0
May 1, 2023at HOUHOU 7 − 3

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 10at SF6 − 3W
Aug 9at SD2 − 7L
Aug 8at SD2 − 3L
Aug 7at SD6 − 3W
Aug 5vs TOR4 − 5L
Aug 4vs TOR7 − 2W
Aug 3vs TOR1 − 3L
Aug 2vs TEX7 − 3W
Aug 1vs TEX5 − 4W
Jul 31vs TEX11 − 2W

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 5at TEX0 − 6L
Aug 4at TEX4 − 5L
Aug 3at TEX5 − 1W
Aug 2at SD4 − 5L
Aug 1at SD5 − 6L
Jul 31at SD0 − 7L