bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TOR 2 – HOU 7
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000020000251
HOU00024010791
Team box
TOR·HOU
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
7
6
strikeouts
4
145
pitches thrown
112
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Taylor TrammellHOU1-3213
Jose AltuveHOU3-4202
Yainer DiazHOU2-4001
Myles StrawTOR2-3101
Cam SmithHOU1-3001
Christian WalkerHOU1-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey YesavageTOR2.00010
Chad Dallas (L)TOR3.07643
Hayden Wesneski (W)HOU6.04224

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: HOU 5 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.5 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
9.0
Blue JaysThe matchupAstros
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.00Power rating+0.00
3.9Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.96Home runs / game1.36
2.7Walks drawn / game3.4
53−60Season record58−56
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10648%+12444.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10652%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 22 Kstarted
HOUHayden Wesneski SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·HOU
Aug 3 at HOU
last game
Aug 3 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
TOR·HOU
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
3.9
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
53−60
season record
58−56
28−31
home record
29−28
25−29
away record
29−28
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.96
home runs / game
1.36
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.65
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TOR · HOU · 129 days
Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Aug 3at HOUTOR 3 − 1
Jun 24at TORHOU 3 − 1
Jun 23at TORHOU 9 − 7
Jun 22at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at TORHOU 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 0

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 3at HOU3 − 1W
Aug 2vs STL1 − 5L
Aug 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 31vs STL3 − 1W
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Aug 3vs TOR1 − 3L
Aug 2vs TEX7 − 3W
Aug 1vs TEX5 − 4W
Jul 31vs TEX11 − 2W
Jul 29at LAA7 − 4W
Jul 28at LAA3 − 2W
Jul 27at LAA6 − 4W
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W