bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Astros

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TOR 3 – HOU 1
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR010200000370
HOU0000010001101
Team box
TOR·HOU
7
hits
10
1
home runs
0
0
walks
5
7
strikeouts
10
139
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alejandro KirkTOR1-4111
Jose AltuveHOU2-4000
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4001
Yainer DiazHOU2-4100
Cam SmithHOU2-4000
Myles StrawTOR2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Bieber (W)TOR5.29126
Tyler Rogers (S)TOR1.00000
Cristian Javier (L)HOU6.07302

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · TOR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.6 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
9.1
Blue JaysThe matchupAstros
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.01Power rating+0.01
3.9Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.96Home runs / game1.37
2.7Walks drawn / game3.4
52−60Season record58−55
6−4Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10848%+12444.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10852%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORShane Bieber SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 9 Kstarted
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 7.2 IP, 11.74 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·HOU
Aug 2 vs STL
last game
Aug 2 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
TOR·HOU
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.9
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
52−60
season record
58−55
28−31
home record
29−27
24−29
away record
29−28
L1
streak
W6
6−4
last 10
9−1
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.96
home runs / game
1.37
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.65
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TOR · HOU · 128 days
Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
Jun 24at TORHOU 3 − 1
Jun 23at TORHOU 9 − 7
Jun 22at TORTOR 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 0
Sep 10, 2025at TORHOU 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 0
Jul 4, 2024at TORHOU 5 − 3

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 2vs STL1 − 5L
Aug 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jul 31vs STL3 − 1W
Jul 29at WSH5 − 2W
Jul 28at WSH6 − 8L
Jul 27at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jul 25at BOS6 − 0W
Jul 24at BOS4 − 6L
Jul 23vs TB3 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Aug 2vs TEX7 − 3W
Aug 1vs TEX5 − 4W
Jul 31vs TEX11 − 2W
Jul 29at LAA7 − 4W
Jul 28at LAA3 − 2W
Jul 27at LAA6 − 4W
Jul 26at CHW3 − 12L
Jul 25at CHW4 − 1W
Jul 24at CHW9 − 5W
Jul 22vs MIA5 − 2W